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屈宏斌：至2020年中國(guó)潛在增長(zhǎng)率仍在8%以上

發(fā)布時(shí)間：2014-12-09 17:47:43 來(lái)源：新華網(wǎng) 作者：佚名責(zé)任編輯：羅伯特

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的波動(dòng)、增長(zhǎng)乏力在過(guò)去一段時(shí)間不斷引發(fā)關(guān)于這一輪增長(zhǎng)放緩是周期性還是結(jié)構(gòu)性的爭(zhēng)論。對(duì)此，匯豐銀行大中華區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家屈宏斌撰文表示，測(cè)算結(jié)果顯示至2020年中國(guó)潛在增長(zhǎng)率仍在8%以上。目前盛行的對(duì)潛在增長(zhǎng)率明顯放緩的擔(dān)憂(yōu)未免夸大其詞。采用供應(yīng)側(cè)模型得到的主要結(jié)論是潛在增長(zhǎng)率會(huì)由2001-2013年間的10.2%左右降至2014-2020年的8.6%。分別從勞動(dòng)力、資本存量、全要素生產(chǎn)率幾個(gè)方面探討對(duì)中國(guó)未來(lái)5-10年潛在增長(zhǎng)率的影響。

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