標(biāo)普下調(diào)法國評級展望至負(fù)面
- 發(fā)布時間:2014-10-13 01:00:17 來源:經(jīng)濟(jì)參考報 責(zé)任編輯:謝凌宇
Standard &Poor’sR atingsServiceslow ered itsoutlook on France’sA A creditratingtonegativefrom stableFriday,castingdoubt ontheeffectiveness of President FranoisH ollande’s flagshippolicies andw arningthatpublicfinancesm ay deteriorateaseconom icgrow thdisappoints.
標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾評級服務(wù)機構(gòu)10日將法國A A主權(quán)信用評級展望由穩(wěn)定下調(diào)至負(fù)面,對法國總統(tǒng)奧朗德的核心政策的有效性提出質(zhì)疑,并警告在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩的同時公共財政狀況可能惡化。(《華爾街日報》)
“W e believe that,due topolicyim plem enta-tionriskrelatedtothebudgetaryconsolidationandstructural reform s,a recoveryof the Frencheconom ycouldprove elusive andthat France’spublic finances m ight deterioratebeyond2014,althoughthis is not our base-casescenario,”itsaidina statem ent.
“我們相信,因與鞏固預(yù)算和結(jié)構(gòu)性改革相關(guān)的政策實施可能存在風(fēng)險,法國經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇前景不明,其公共財政在2014年之后可能惡化,盡管這并非我們的基本判斷,”標(biāo)普在聲明中表示。(路透社)
T hechangeintheoutlook com esastheFrench governm ent itself acknow ledgesthatw eak econom icgrow th hasunderm ined itsbudget plansandthebudget deficit w ill runhigher thanprom isedearlier this year.
此次標(biāo)普對法國評級展望作出調(diào)整,正值法國政府承認(rèn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長疲弱影響了預(yù)算方案、預(yù)算赤字將高于今年早些時候承諾的水平之時。(《華爾街日報》)
O fficial figuresfrom theB ank of Franceshow edthat theFrencheconom ydidnot growat all inthesecondquarter,andfor thethirdquarter it is forecastinggrow thof 0.2%.
法國央行的官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示,二季度法國經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)零增長,預(yù)計三季度將增長0.2%。(英國廣播公司)
T heFrench governm ent confirm edat thestart of them onth that it w ouldnot cut itspublic deficit as fast as it hadprom isedits EUpartnersduetow eaker thanexpectedgrow thandinflation. T hegovernm ent now expects thedeficit tofall inline w ithanEU -m andatedtar-get of 3percent of econom ic output in2017in-steadof 2015as previouslyprom ised.
法國政府本月初證實,由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和通脹水平不及預(yù)期,其將不會以此前向歐盟承諾的速度來削減公共財政赤字。目前,法國政府預(yù)計財政赤字將于2017年達(dá)到歐盟規(guī)定的占經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出的3%的目標(biāo),而非此前承諾的2015年。(路透社)
S& P projects that the Frenchgovernm ent’s deficits w ill average4.1% betw een2014and2017—com pared to 3 .2% asof A pril thisyear—w hile econom ic grow thw ill average just1.2% duringthat sam etim efram e,agrow thprojectionthat is 0.1% low er thantheir priorforecast.
根據(jù)標(biāo)普的預(yù)計,2014年至2017年間法國政府的財政赤字將平均占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的4.1%,高于4月份預(yù)計的3.2%;同時期的平均經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將僅為1.2%,比此前預(yù)期的增速低0.1%。(《福布斯》)
T he further deteriorationof S& P’s assess-m ent of France’s finances com es at adifficultm om ent for M r. H ollande. W ithopinionpollsshow ingheis theleast popular president,theSocialist leader’s governm ent faces oppositionon all sidesto hisplansto repairpublicfinances andbuoythe econom yafter aprolong-edperiodof stagnation.
標(biāo)普此次進(jìn)一步調(diào)低對法國財政狀況的評估,正值總統(tǒng)奧朗德的艱難時期。民意調(diào)查顯示,奧朗德為法國最不受歡迎的總統(tǒng)。在經(jīng)歷了漫長的經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯期后,奧朗德領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的社會黨政府也面臨著各方對其修復(fù)公共財政、支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展計劃的反對。(《華爾街日報》)
S& Psaidthat M r. H ollande’s unpopularityandthe vocal oppositiontohis fiscal andecon-om icplansm ayslow dow nactiononfinancesandliberalizinghighlyregulatedareasof theeconom y. T hecountryalreadylacksastrongrecord forcarrying out painful reform s,theratings firm noted.“W e believe that im plem enta-tionrisks persist,”S& Psaid.
標(biāo)普表示,奧朗德的不得人心以及外界對其財政經(jīng)濟(jì)計劃的反對可能放慢財政措施的實行和對受到高端監(jiān)管的經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的自由化進(jìn)程。該機構(gòu)稱,法國本身缺乏實施艱苦改革的傳統(tǒng)?!拔覀兿嘈耪邔嵤┑娘L(fēng)險將持續(xù),”標(biāo)普表示。(《華爾街日報》)
F rench F inanceMinisterMichel Sapinreactedquicklytothem ovefrom S& P . Inastatem ent,hesaidFrenchdebt rem ains oneofthesafest andm ost liquidinvestm entsinthew orld . H ealso said thatF rancew ouldn’tchangeitseconom icstrategy.“T heeconom icsituationis w eighingonour budget balances,but thegovernm ent has decidedtosticktoitscourse,”M r. Sapinsaid.
法國財政部長米歇爾·薩班對標(biāo)普的行動迅速作出了回應(yīng)。他在一份聲明中稱,法國債務(wù)仍將是世界上最安全和流動性最高的投資之一,并稱政府不會改變經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略?!敖?jīng)濟(jì)狀況給預(yù)算平衡帶來了壓力,但政府已決定堅持既定路線,”薩班稱。(《華爾街日報》)
S& P w asthefirstof thethreem ajorratings firm s tostripFrance of the toptriple-Arating in January 2012,justbefore Mr.H ollandecam eto office. Sincethen,bothM oody’s Investors ServiceandFitch R atingshave follow edsuit andS& P dow ngradedFranceagaininN ovem ber last year toA A from A A +.
2012年1月,就在奧朗德執(zhí)政前夕,標(biāo)普成為三大國際評級機構(gòu)中第一個下調(diào)法國3A評級的評級機構(gòu)。此后,穆迪和惠譽也紛紛下調(diào)法國評級。去年11月,標(biāo)普進(jìn)一步將法國評級由A A +下調(diào)至A A。(《華爾街日報》)
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